Showing posts with label bitcoin exchange. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bitcoin exchange. Show all posts

Thursday, March 9, 2017

BTC Exchange Tutorial: BitMEX Trading Platform - Beginners Guide on How to Margin Trade BTC & Altcoins Derivatives & Futures Contracts, and other Prediction Markets

BitMEX: The Next Generation of Bitcoin Derivatives
BitMEX: The Next Generation of Bitcoin Derivatives

Introduction to The Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (BitMEX)


The Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (BitMEX) is a leading digital currency exchange platform that offers Derivatives, Futures, and Prediction contracts and markets for margin trading cryptocurrencies.

BitMEX offers a variety of contract types, and all contracts are bought and paid out in Bitcoin. It is the only platform that offers a "Perpetual P2P Swap", a contract that trades like a future but never expires!

BitMEX touts itself to be a provider of "The Next Generation of Bitcoin Derivatives", and quite rightfully so. The platform has been able to grow significantly, no doubt partly due to their ability to open traders up to various kinds of interesting derivative markets, and keeping their customers happy with transparency, open communication, having strong security in place, and most importantly, a highly advanced yet user-friendly trading platform.

BitMEX: Perpetual P2P Swap Contracts Do Not Expire
BitMEX: Perpetual P2P Swap Contracts Do Not Expire
BitMEX offers 3 bitcoin markets, namely, Bitcoin/USD (XBT). Bitcoin/CNY (XBC), Bitcoin/JPY (XBJ), a variety of other alternative cryptocurrency markets, and even prediction markets.

Alternative cryptocurrency markets include Zcash (ZEC), Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), Monero (XMR), Ripple (XRP), Augur (REP), Litecoin (LTC), Factom (FCT), Dash (DASH), as well as other derivative prediction markets such as the likelihood of Bitcoin ETF Approval (COIN).

They also offer demo accounts for you to test trading strategies without risking any funds.

How Does Margin Trading on BitMEX Work? 

 

BitMEX: Margin Trading Bitcoin up to 100x Leverage
BitMEX: Margin Trading Bitcoin up to 100x Leverage

Margin Trading refers to borrowing from the broker (trading platform) to either buy or sell a stock.

Depending on which market, BitMEX offers a flexible leverage of up to 100x for Bitcoin markets and up to 33x for Altcoin markets. But that doesn't mean that you should use the maximum available leverage, and in fact, you shouldn't unless you really know what you are doing!

My suggestion for the new traders here is to stick to a leverage of 5x or less, before moving to 10x or higher when you are more comfortable.

Getting Started - Sign Up & Fund Your BitMEX Account

 

The need for KYC/AML only arises when you need to deposit or withdraw FIAT currency from the exchange. Example, for Bitfinex, you can trade any market using your BTC deposits and withdraw Bitcoin perfectly fine without filling up any forms. You only need to get your account approved when you want to deposit/withdraw USD or Euro etc..

For BitMEX, like most Bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges, there is no need to go through KYC/AML document submission and approval process, and you can start trading immediately just by signing up and funding your account!

Keep Your Account SECURE!


After you set up your account, the first thing you should do is to keep your account secure, and I can't emphasize this enough! Here are some things you should do to keep hackers at bay:
  1.  MUST DO: 2FA on both exchange and email account. Once this is done, you should not be able to get compromised, except in rare cases such as sim-jacking. Highly suggest using Google Authenticator / Authy type of 2FA, instead of SMS 2FA which is susceptible to sim-jacking with some social engineering and one lazy telco service operator customer care assistant.
  2. MUST DO: Use strong passwords; minimum 20 characters with a mix of upper- and lower-case letters, numbers, and characters.
  3. Optional: Use a separate email address for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency only.

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Walk-through


Now that we've got that out of the way, lets dive straight into navigating around the BitMEX exchange trading dashboard. Below is the landing page you'll see upon logging into your BitMEX account.

For your easy reference, I have split the interface up into three segments:
A) Market Information
B) Account Information
C) Trading Tools & Management

A) Market Information

BitMex Trading Dashboard Walkthrough: Market Information
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Walkthrough: Market Information

1. Market Overview

Right at the top, you can find the ticker symbols of all the available markets. Clicking on the symbols on the left will toggle between showing the market data of the relevant market, namely current trading price and 24h % gain/loss.


2. Market Selection

You can find a row of markets and their associated tickers in this section. Clicking on each of the markets will load the relevant market information as below.


3. Market Information

In this section, you can find the charts powered by tradingview.com, the order book, and recent trade history. The market that is shown here is the market is chosen in the "Market Selection" section.


4. Market Contract Details

Here you will be able to see information about the contract or market that is chosen in the "Market Selection" section.


B) Account Information

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Walkthrough: Account Information
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Walkthrough: Account Information
5. Dashboard Tabs

Trade, Account, Contracts, References, API


6. Balance

You can view your balance at the top right.

Alternatively, your available trading balance is also shown on the left side under the "Place Order" section.


7. Account Information & Settings

You may access your account information by clicking on your username at the top right, where you can change your currency denomination display, color theme, dashboard layout, and access other account/security and site preference settings.

Alternatively, you can also click on "Account" in the dashboard tabs section to access your account settings.


C) Trading Tools & Management

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Walkthrough: Trading Tools & Management
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Walkthrough: Trading Tools & Management

8. Place Order

This is where you place your orders by inputting the quantity, price, and other parameters where required.


9. Position Overview

Here you can see the overview of your open positions, including the number of contracts, entry price, Return on Equity (ROE), liquidation price, and leverage used. You are also able to adjust the leverage used in your open position.


10. Manage Orders & Positions

Active orders and open positions will appear in this section.

It also shows a history of your orders and fills.


BitMEX Trading Dashboard - Order Types


Now that you are familiar with how to navigate BitMEX's platform, let's move on to the various order types, placing an order, and get to the actual trading proper! Click on the image below to view it in full size.

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Overview
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Overview

Again, for easy reference, I have split the 7 available order types into 3 groups:
A) Market & Limit Orders
B) Stop Orders
C) Take Profit Orders

Let's go into more detail for each order type below.


A) Market & Limit Orders


Market and Limit orders are the most common types of orders used by traders to enter into a trade/position. These orders are immediately entered into the order book once opened.

1. Market Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Market Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Market Order
Straightforward. Buys/sells at the nearest available price.

After clicking Buy or Sell, there will be a confirmation page, where you can adjust your desired leverage for the trade.




2. Limit Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Limit Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Limit Order
Next most commonly used order would be the Limit Order, which basically allows you to place a buy/sell at your desired price.

Similarly, there is a confirmation page where you adjust your desired leverage for the trade.


B) Stop Orders


Stop orders, unlike market or limit orders, do not appear on the order book immediately upon opening. These orders are associated with a trigger price, or "stop price" in the case of BitMEX, whereby your order is only entered into the order book after the stop price is hit. As I shared in my last post about Bitfinex, stop orders are usually used as "stop losses" to get out of a bad trade, but are also extremely effective in buying into breakouts. To read more about how buy breakouts with stop orders and let your winners ride, check out this post about margin trading.


3. Stop Market Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Stop Market Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Stop Market Order
A Stop Market Order is a market order that is triggered (opens) when your stop price is hit. 

For example, if today's BTC price is $1150, and you place a stop market buy order at $1200, your position will not trigger if price trades anywhere below $1199. Once a trade occurs on the market at $1200, your stop market buy order will trigger and a market buy is made.


4. Stop Limit Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Stop Limit Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Stop Limit Order
In the same way that a market order differs from a limit order, a Stop Limit Order works in the same way as a Stop Market Order, except with an additional "limit price" parameter that is triggered only when your stop price is hit.

Further to the example above, if you enter $1200 as the stop price, and $1175 as the limit price, and when a trade occurs on the market at $1200, a limit order at $1175 will be placed.

Alternatively, if you enter $1200 as the stop price, and $1210 as the limit price, this will act almost like a market buy when your trade is triggered (unless there are not enough sells for your purchase quantity up to the limit price - in which case you need to increase the limit price or simply use a stop market order).


5. Trailing Stop Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Trailing Stop Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Trailing Stop Order
Instead of setting a stop price, a Trailing Stop Order makes use of a "Trail Value" parameter to determine when a market order gets triggered. This "Trail Value" is calculated against the market's price at which you entered the position.

For example, if BTC price is $1150 and I have an active buy position, and I open a Trailing Stop Order by entering a "Trail Value" of $5, my active buy position will close when price goes to $1145. Whereas if BTC price is $1200, opening the same trailing stop order will close my active buy position when price goes to $1195.


C) Take Profit Orders


Take Profit Orders, as the name suggests, enables you to set a target price on an existing open position to close it and "take profit". This can be done in the form of a market order or limit order.

It simply works in the same way as placing a limit order in the opposite direction of your active position (i.e. placing a limit sell order if you have an active buy position). 

Interestingly, just like using a stop to buy a breakout, this order type can also be used to set an entry point for a new position. But unlike a stop order, triggers are set in the opposite direction. To use it in this way, untick the "Close on Trigger" option as this is for closing orders only and will automatically cancel any orders if used to enter/open a position.

See below for a closer look at the Take Profit Market Order and Take Profit Limit Order.


6. Take Profit Market Order



BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Take Profit Market Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Take Profit Market Order


7. Take Profit Limit Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Take Profit Limit Order
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Order Types: Take Profit Limit Order


BitMEX Trading Dashboard - Manage Orders & Positions


Upon placing your order or if you have any open positions, you can view and manage them in the middle bottom section of the trading dashboard. You can also view your order history, fills, and closed positions in this section.

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Positions Overview
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Positions Overview


1. Active Orders


Once you place a limit order (and it doesn't immediately trigger), they will appear in this "Active Orders" tab. You can edit the quantity and price while the order is still open, although you can't change a buy into a sell.

Stop orders and take profit orders will appear in the "Stops" tab.
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Active Orders
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Active Orders

2. Open Positions

 

Once your active order triggers, or when you place a market order, they will appear here in "Positions". You are able to add/remove margin to your position, which changes the liquidation price of your position, as well as to easily place a limit or market order to close your position instead of having to place the order through the "Place Order" section.

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Open Positions
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Open Positions

If you want to change your leverage used on a particular position, you can adjust it with the slider on the left side of your dashboard, just below the "Place Order" section.

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Your Position
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Your Position

3. Stop Loss & Take Profit


Active stop orders and take profit orders will appear here in the "Stops" tab. You can also edit some parameters, including the quantity, stop price, and limit price, as well as cancel the order.

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Stop Loss & Take Profit
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Stop Loss & Take Profit

4. Order History


Lastly, you will be able to view all your order history, executed or not, in this "Order History" tab. You can then find all your filled order history in the "Fills" tab, and "Closed Positions" in the corresponding tab.

BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Order History
BitMEX Trading Dashboard Manage Orders & Positions: Order History

BitMEX Funding, Trading & Withdrawal Fees


Find below a snapshot of the funding, deposit, withdrawal, order execution, and swap fees. See it here: https://www.bitmex.com/app/fees.


BitMEX Funding Trading & Withdrawal Fees
BitMEX Funding Trading & Withdrawal Fees
BitMEX Funding Trading & Withdrawal Fees
BitMEX Funding Trading & Withdrawal Fees

BitMEX Security


Read about the security measures in place on BitMEX from wallet and trading engine security, to system and communication security: https://www.bitmex.com/app/security.


BitMEX API


The platform offers a fully featured REST API and a powerful streaming WebSocket API, making available all market and user data and updates in real-time: https://www.bitmex.com/app/apiOverview.


BitMEX Information Library


Bitmex has their own library of guides and tips on trading on their platform, which cover an extensive range of topics. So I tried to make this post more visual, and cover only what BitMEX themselves did not.

Take a look at these links to learn more about the BitMEX platform:



They also have in-depth information about how their platform differs from competitors, for various parameters including liquidation events, contract loss mechanisms, max leverage, initial margin, maintenance margin, settlement mechanisms, minimum contract sizes, and many more!

See the comparison here: https://www.bitmex.com/app/whatsDifferent

Conclusion

I hope that this post gives you a good overview of how to use BitMEX trading exchange platform to view markets, open orders, enter into positions, as well as teach you how to use each of the different order types.

1Broker: Trade Global Markets with Bitcoin - Forex, Stocks, Indexes, Commodities
1Broker: Trade Global Markets with Bitcoin - Forex, Stocks, Indexes, Commodities
In my next post, I will prepare a similar tutorial for using 1Broker, which offers something different from Bitfinex or BitMEX, by having global markets such as Forex, Stocks, Indexes and Commodities available to traders. In addition, I also hope to share some tips on crafting your perfect trading strategy, and the importance of risk management and position sizing management. Stay tuned!

If you have any suggestions or comments, please feel free to leave them below.

Thank you for reading, and good luck trading!

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Embarking on my Bitcoin Trading Journey: Learn Basic Technical Analysis

My Trading Experience

I first dabbled with Trading and Technical Analysis back in November 2012, when I first got into Forex Trading. Back then, I was introduced to an Automated Forex Robot that could rake in passive income of about 5-10% a month, and used a Martingale (doubling) strategy for trading. In less than 3 months, half of my account went bust because I was using too high of a risk-reward setting, coupled with a highly volatile GBP/USD market on the 4th of January 2013.

I did a fair share of Finance courses during my Business studies, and had a basic understanding of the Equity and Forex markets, and thought that I knew what I was doing. But oh was I so wrong! After this setback, I began to learn more about Technical Analysis to supplement my Auto Trading, and more importantly, to really understand what I was investing in.

I continued using the Forex Robot for the next 10 months up till November 2013, as I began to shift out my funds into Bitcoin after finally turning a profit in August. Since then, I have been following Bitcoin more closely, and have been super interested in learning how to trade Bitcoin.



Getting Started

Back when I was learning more about Forex trading, I went to Forex school at Babypips, and learnt some of the fundamentals of chart reading and trading, such as reading candles and trading concepts. Unfortunately, I dropped out somewhere through Elementary School, after they lost me with all kinds of different indicators I could not see the use for. On the other hand, I still do think Babypips is a fantastic resource, especially for beginners who are keen to learn how to trade and better understand the Bitcoin market.

More recently, since I made my first few panic buys and sells and lost some Bitcoins trading, I have been picking up again on Technical Analysis and Trading strategies. I'm not an expert at this, and neither should you take my words as investment advice, but I'm here to share some of my thoughts on Bitcoin trading, and I hope it is of great help to you!

If you have any questions, feel free to tweet me at @onemanatatime.

Learn the Basics of Trading

If you're a beginner trader, first thing you should learn is to read charts. Chart patterns signal to traders that the price of a security is likely to move in one direction or another when the pattern is complete. I'd like to bring your attention three chart patterns that will appear very often. I also took the time to show you how these relate to Bitcoin trading with the charting tools I use on TradingView. Enjoy!



Secondly, another analysis tool I think is very useful, is the Fibonacci Extension. Fibonacci is pretty tough to understand, and more so to chart with Bitcoin due to the lack of available tools which allow for it. But in essence, the Fibonacci sequence is a unique string of numbers which adds the sum of the two numbers before it, and is the deravitive of the Golden Ratio. People like to call them the "magic" numbers, and very aptly so, as they're present all throughout Nature.

Jason Stapleton shares the secret of Fibonacci Trading; that is to understand that Fibonacci (extension) is simply a tool. But when employed properly, and in conjunction with other indicators, it can present enourmously profitable, high reward low risk trading opportunities. Watch his video here:


Lastly, I'd like to share a trading pattern called the Elliott Wave Principle. It emphasizes an understanding of Investor Psychology, and explains why prices fluctuate in zig-zag patterns. If you thought Fibonacci was tough to understand, let's have Babypips put this in perspective. Babypips teaches Fibonacci in Elementary school Grade 3, whereas Elliott Wave is taught in "Summer School". In that sense, Eliott Wave would be a great concept to learn and understand, as a supplement to your foundational understanding. Click on the links above to read and learn more about both theories!

Bitcoin Trading

By now, you'd probably be saying: "Sure, these resources all give me a good basic understanding of trading markets, but how does that apply to Bitcoin?" Since learning the fundamentals, I've been looking around for good resources to learn Bitcoin Trading from but with not much luck. Here I'll be sharing some handy videos to guide you on your Bitcoin trading journey.

I didn't get around to learning proper Bitcoin trading strategies, until early December when I chanced upon Chris Dunn's first Bitcoin trading video and prediction.


I watched @ChrisDunnTV's first Bitcoin prediction video on the 6th of December 2013, and the rest of his "How To Day Trade" 5 part series videos. Somehow, I had a gut feeling that he was the ONLY guy trading Bitcoin who actually knew what he was talking about. 



Since then, he's made and nailed 5 back-to-back Bitcoin predictions, each with 15-30% profit. Watch his last prediction play out with immaculate precision. Watch the video here: Incredible Live Bitcoin Trading!


This is a long one, but here's another great video I highly recommend watching: 60 Minute Stock Trading Blueprint Webinar.

If you liked his content, watch his other videos on his YouTube channel and follow him on twitter @ChrisDunnTV for the latest updates!

Lastly, I also very much believe in Chris Dunn's trading perspective. I think more than analyzing news articles, or technical analysis, the most important aspect of trading is to understand the market sentiment. Hence, I also want to highlight how many Bitcoin traders are currently looking at certain time frames (e.g. in 12 hours from now) to determine a price for entry. I'd just like say that that's not going to work! Instead of narrow time frames, and random $ amounts; think about Price-ActionResistance, and Support.

Another piece of advice, is to match the Price-Action of both a long term-time period as well as a short-term one, when trying to make judgement calls. I personally use Bitcoinwisdom.com for reading a chart, and use anything from a 6h to 1d Time Interval for a long-term period, and anything from a 5m to 30m chart for short-term analysis.


Past Trades & Predictions

My very first prediction about Bitcoin came in my first blog post about Bitcoin hitting $1000 by the end of 2013. I wrote the post on 14 November 2013, and you can read it here: Is the Bitcoin train ever turning back? $1000 by year end?

Then on 28 November 2013, I wrote another blog post about an incoming Litecoin crash. I related the price surge during that time, to the Bitcoin bubble of April's Cyprus fiasco. At that time, I had no clue how to judge resistance and support, but interestingly, the wisdom of crowds (more or less) pulled through with the right answer. Litecoin peaked at $50, before crashing down over 50%.


Since I began learning to trade, the added market understanding has given me a better insight into estimating a fair price for altcoins, as well as to judge support/resistance levels to look for entry/exit points. I have made a few spot-on Altcoin predictions of my own over the last weeks, as you can see on my previous blog posts about WorldCoin, NXTcoin, and DogeCoin here and eMunie and EarthCoin here. Follow me on Twitter or my blog to get the latest updates on Altcoin opportunities!

And last but not least, here was my first Bitcoin prediction. Click the link to see how my first prediction panned out on TradingView. I didn't know what I was doing, but I guess that's what they call Beginner's Luck. ;)


Today's Prediction
I think Bitcoin will be looking to retest the $544 support level of Bitstamp, before picking up for a new All Time High. But before we can go the Moon, Earth's gravity is causing a small nosedive into the $650-$720 levels, and I'll enter if my Sell order goes through at $850.


And here's a friendly reminder about following Bitcoin or Altcoin predictions:


Follow me on TradingView as I create new charts with Buy/Sell opportunities, or Twitter @onemanatatime for the latest updates! Don't forget to enter your vote for the Bitcoin price poll on the right column of this blog. Here's my vote, what's yours?




With that, I'd like to end off with this; good luck trading, and HUAT AH! And here's a quote from The Alchemist, by Paulo Coelho.

Saturday, November 30, 2013

The Altcoin craze: What coin should I hold on to?

Altcoins have been the rave over the last 5 days since Litecoin's prices surged past $10. Now that Litecoin has found a resistance at $50, and support at $25, what's next?

As predicted, Litecoin was a bubble in the making, and made a mini crash which began on the 28th November from $50/LTC to about $25.56 4 hours ago. Prices look like that have begun to climb back up again, and I won't be surprised to see LTC at $50 again within a week. Unfortunately, even though I predicted the impending "mini bubble" of LTC, I didn't manage to trade them out into BTC at the peak. In fact, I actually bought some more Litecoins at 0.05 (LTC/BTC). Not the best move, but I'm still happy with my Litecoins.

So if you haven't bought into Litecoins, or have sold your LTC at the peak, it's a REALLY good time to buy in right now; especially if you're thinking of doubling your money's worth in a week or two. If you're interested to get started, but need some help, email me at alvinlee133@gmail.com or leave a comment below and we'll see how we can work something out! =)

More interestingly, Litecoin's price surge was tailed by all other major alternative crypocurrencies during this rise, especially those available for trading on Btc-e. In my post back in October when I first found out about Altcoins, I featured a snipshot of the top 6 Cryptocurrencies on coinmarketcap.com, and it looked something like this:


And then 1 month later, on the 28th of October, it looked something like this:

Over the course of 1 month, Litecoin market capitalization increased over 2000%. The rest of the top alt coins also saw large increases in market cap with Peercoin (PPC) gaining 1100%, with Namecoin (NMC) and Primecoin (XPM) following behind with a 1700% and 850% gain respectively. During the month of November, almost all major altcoins outperformed Bitcoin's 600% increase in market capitalization during the same period.

And just TWO DAYS later, at the time of posting, it looked like this:

For your viewing pleasure, I have set them up in a nice, borderless table for a comparison of market cap gains over the last 2 days. I'm sorry to you NovaCoin fans for leaving NVC out of the equation, but I read about some pre-mining & other issues with the development team somewhere, so I'm staying away.

[Market Cap] BTC LTC PPC NMC XPM FTC
% Gain 14% 0% 131% 30% 47% 148%


With a quick look at http://altcoins.com/, we can see the two greatest gainers were PPC and FTC, which have nothing in common in terms of the algorithm. Alternative Coin prices are purely based on speculation right now, as can be seen by the huge rally quickly following behind Litecoin's rise to fame.

If you're planning to dabble in some alt coins besides Litecoin, and have a high risk propensity, this may be the best time to risk your money for the possibility of massive gains. By massive, I'm talking about a minimum of a 5 fold increase in USD value (or even Bitcoin value if you're lucky enough).

I'm not really a person for predictions, but this situation calls for one. As mentioned, I (personally) believe that alt coin prices are following behind LTC prices, ever so slightly. You can get to see the latest price movements with my favourite Bitcoin chart to date: Bitcoinwisdom.com. On Bitcoinwisdom, use the 1m chart to see the prices as they trade live, and you can even choose between different markets from the bar at the top making it much easier to compare prices across different exchanges. If you're new to chart reading, please check out their help page @ http://bitcoinwisdom.com/help/charts. If you need a better explaination, comment below and I'll be more than happy to help.

Use Bitcoinwisdom's chart to see when Litecoin prices are going up (which I think is happening now, with a resistance of $50 and a support at $25), and invest in your trusted alt coins when you think it is happening! If I had to name one, I'd go with NMC! If you prefer something with a higher risk, try FTC & XPM.

Trade with your heart, not with your mind. Trade safe, and HUAT AH!

I have my next post in mind about panic selling/buying and how you can avoid it, and a little bit about bull/bear traps. But before I go into that, let me just end off with a piece of advice for beginners. DON'T trade (unless your taking a profit) during a price spike! More likely that not, a huge up/downswing (as seen on one candle in BTC-e's charts) will end up close to it's original position, before moving off in the same direction. To get a better understanding, look at the example below:


On the left, we have 2 candles pointed out by the blue arrows which illustrates my point. First arrow shows a candle with a huge dip downwards, and price retracts to close to the top within a minute or so. After which, prices will start to bleed downwards. This is the same for the 2nd blue arrow, but in the opposite direction (upward trending).

On another note, I just wanted to also point out the candle pointed out by the red arrow. Such a significant (in size) and opposite trending candle, following a "peak" as shown by the previous 3 arrows, usually means that a downtrend is coming. Or at least that's what I've learnt from my 2 month experience analyzing Cryptocurrency charts.

I also found a very interesting theory that is applicable to the crytpo markets. If you are interested in trading your Bitcoins, be sure to read up on Elliott Wave Theory.

Friday, November 15, 2013

Is the Bitcoin train ever turning back? $1000 by year end?

Could it be that the Bitcoin train is never ever turning back from here? Since BTC prices soared past the previous April high of $266, it's been surging up to a high of $440 and building up a resistance level, hitting this peak for the second time in 12 hours. On the 5 day chart, we can form a support at $370. I think this resistance and support levels are highly significant now, and my guess is that the BTC prices will be hovering between $370-$440 (MtGox price) for a good 4 days, at least until the 18th of November. If it breaks above this resistance, I feel like the train is never turning back. Will we ever see bitcoin prices at $250, or even $300, ever again?

Some of you may already know about the Homeland Security hearing on the 18th of November. Why is this important? Well, it really depends on the outcome. But judging from how the US is treating Bitcoins now, siezing MtGox bank accounts, silkroad etc., I'm skeptical about any good news coming out of this hearing. If it's bad news, we could easily see prices slide to $266, or even way below $200. Otherwise, if news is neutral or positive, we could see Bitcoin prices soar to $800, even $1000, by the end of the year. In the past month, some big names in Bitcoin and businesses have valued Bitcoin at $100k, even $1 million. Do you think that's possible? Tell me in the comments below.

Bitcoin's rising demand can also be attributred to more businesses offering BTC as a payment option, since Baidu first did so on 22st October 2013. Some notable brands include Shopify, Subway, with eBay considering it. While in China, you can buy real estate with BTC, and beer for BTC in Singapore!

On the other hand, there have also been a significant increase in the number of hackings. Several exchanges have fallen just this month alone, along with some wallet services such as inputs.io. Could the vulnerability of such services compromise the price of Bitcoins significantly?

How would you value a Bitcoin? Author Squeaky Wheel categorizes 3 ways in which we can measure the valuation of bitcoins: 
1) compare to gold (GLD), 
2) compare to a company providing similar service such as Western Union (WU) or Paypal (EBAY), or 
3) calculate values needed to support the transactional value.

I personally agree with the third method, because I believe that the value of Bitcoins are purely dependent on demand, which is in turn increased as more services are built to make it easier transact in cryptocurrncies. Of course, political and regulatory factors will also have a large effect on Bitcoin prices. So lets see what happens on the 18th of November 2013. 

Have comments? Share them with us below!

Liked my Content? Donate Bitcoins


Sources

Vinkelvoss twins: Bitcoin should be worth over 100 times it's worth today http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181
How High Could Bitcoin Value Soar? - Satoshi's Billion Dollar Pizza
EBay eyes use of Bitcoins in online commerce http://www.dw.de/ebay-eyes-use-of-bitcoins-in-online-commerce/a-17202747
As Bitcoin Plunges 25% On Government Scrutiny, The First BTC "Fair Value" Reco Has A Stunning Price Target http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-10/bitcoin-plunges-25-government-scrutiny-first-btc-fair-value-reco-has-stunning-price-
China, buying real estate with bitcoins http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-exchange-btc-china-experiences-time-price-high/
Beer for bitcoins singapore http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2fDYJFMXEg
$1.2M Heist Doesn’t Bode Well For Bitcoins as Secure Currency http://socialtimes.com/1-2m-heist-doesnt-bode-well-bitcoins-secure-currency_b137530

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