Showing posts with label market manipulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market manipulation. Show all posts

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Trader Dad: What Makes a Successful Trader? Trading Advice From My Old Man

Since I can remember, I haven't lived with my dad. I barely meet him since he worked overseas for the most part, and never knew much about him. Funnily enough, I never knew he traded financial markets, until after I got into trading and brought it up with him.

Recently, I asked my dad to write a short introduction to trading, something that would be useful for people starting out and dipping their toes into trading financial markets or cryptocurrencies. Even though he doesn't trade Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies (yet), he's had decades of experience navigating the markets, and I hope this short and simple post can give you some insight into what an old-timer has to say about becoming profitable at trading.

So here goes...



Dear Trader,

I have been trading in the “futures market” similar to what we now refer to as the Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) market for the last 30 years.

I would like to share my experience and knowledge with people that are interested in financial trading (*this is a short introduction and not meant to be a recommendation of any trade that anyone might like to take).

To make it simple, I will sum up the most important elements in making a successful trader. Successful traders are those that make a good and correct decision and/or action in the following:

1. Money

2. Time

3. Target


1. Money

A trader need first to decide the amount that he is prepared to invest or the amount that he is willing to cut loss in each trade and his overall trading.

One must be disciplined with this decision making and necessary control action is very important.

Unnecessary losses usually occur when one overtrades, or holds on to a position that had a big loss for too long that eventually that he cannot afford.


2. Time

Time is a very important factor in many ways:

1. Trader needs to spend time to analyze and decide on a particular trade.

2. Trader needs to decide if short term or long term trading that he/she will like to be working on.

Not spending enough time to understand the market that you are trading can result in unnecessary trading losses.

There are much to learn in trading such as margin requirement, historical high and low level, economic fundamental of the product, average cycle period of high and low, stop order, technical analysis, trading hours, daily swap value of the product, etc.


3. Target

Target refers to both sides of your exit point on either profit taking or cut loss.

A successful trader is more likely to be a person who is very disciplined in his execution of trade.

Trader should always remember that “the market is always there”, which means that one should protect his margin for his future trade.

Having a clear target will eliminate the emotional trading in your trade.


Other Factors

Other than those points in trading that I had mentioned above. I will also like to bring up some other factors and risks concerning futures trading in the modern market as follows:

A. Price Manipulation

Trader should be aware that the globalization of the modern world and the advancement of technology in computers and the Internet had made it very easy for the banking cartel to manipulate the prices throughout all the trading platform from index to currency to commodity such as gold and silver and all other counters.

This situation had been persisting and intensified over the recent years.

The high share index, the low price in gold price and silver are the result of such manipulation.


B. Stop Hunting

Trader will notice that there is always some sort of taking out cut loss movement occur before price is going to make a big move in the opposite direction are clear evident of the price manipulation by the major player in the market. Read more about stop hunting on Investopedia.


C. Economic Data

We used to depend on the economic data issued by various government department to plan our trade.

Trader should be aware that these data are no more as accurate and reliable in the recent time.


D. Major Economic Situation

Trade should be aware of the major economic situation which is going to have a major impact of the world economic in years to come such as:

1. Excessive quantitative easing (QE) (money printing) by various government over the years

2. US national debt of 20 trillion dollars and its debt ceiling

3. The death of petro-dollar

4. The conflict between US with Russia, North Korea and other middle east countries

5. Financial difficulties in the major bank in EU and the possible breakup of EU

6. The purchase of physical gold by central bank


Conclusion

The present market situation is critical and it represent a good opportunity for those that have prepared for the volatile market movement ahead. Do your study, prepare yourself and this will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for many traders. Good luck and enjoy your trading.

Thank you.


Yours Sincerely,
Sam Lee

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Paradigm Shift: Technical Analysis in the Altcoins & Bitcoin Market, & Introduction to Market Cycle, Structure & Manipulation

Remember this? I bet the first time you saw it in December you laughed this picture off, but it's okay so did I. And if this is the first time you're seeing this, don't dismiss it just yet!


Because, well, the harsh truth is that its all real. And this market cycle, believe it or not, is present in every market out there, including these Bitcoin & Altcoin markets.


If you haven't already, check out my previous posts earlier this year about trading Bitcoins and Altcoins, which highlight technical analysis basics, fundamental analysis frameworks, margin trading, and tips on developing a cryptocurrency trading strategy and TA. Here, I just want to point out the importance of understanding market structure, introduce you to market manipulation, and show you how technical analysis can be applied to your cryptocurrency trading.

As you read on, keep these following points in mind as these rules apply even more closely:
  • What goes up must come down
  • Buy on rumors, sell on news
  • All markets are linked to everything else


To take this one step further and understand the markets from an even wider perspective, the next thing to do is to put on your market manipulator hat. Check out these 2 really good resources covering this topic for a deeper understanding of what I'm trying to get at:


The whole point of learning about how market manipulators operate is not to actually manipulate the markets yourself or conduct pump and dumps, but to actually spot when others are trying to do so. This can help your trading strategy in various ways such as to:
  • Have a better understanding of the ebbs and flows of the market
  • Avoid getting caught in their squeezes
  • Identify a suspicious (potentially profitable) market
  • Know what the "smartest man in the room" is doing, and follow the "smart money"

From Wolong's ebook, he broke down the market cycle into 7 stages, namely:
  1. Position Building 
  2. Suppressing prices
  3. Test Pump
  4. Actual Pump
  5. Shakeouts
  6. Re-allocation and distribution
  7. Exiting - The Dump

If you compare the psychology chart above and the Pump & Dump cycle pointed out by Wolong, to the market structure chart below, you can see how they have very similar structures even though they use different terms to explain the phases.


And from this market structure chart, you can see that the stages can be further simplified to 4 phases:
  1. Accumulation
  2. Markup (Pump)
  3. Distribution
  4. Decline (Dump)

So why is this important, or how does it apply to the cryptocurrency markets? By understanding the market cycle chart, you will be able to better pick altcoins by spotting accumulation zones to join the breakout and profit, and to make your exit when you reach distribution zones. For example:


Although many people disregard the profitability (or possibility) of using technical analysis to trade the Bitcoin and especially Altcoins markets, it is most definitely possible. I think the problem lies predominantly in the limitation that some of you have put on the term 'technical analysis'.

Every piece of information on that chart you use is part of technical analysis; but the bigger question is how to make sense of it all. To better understand TA, we should think of the price charts as simply a graph of human behaviour.

Although the tools to do so efficiently are sorely lacking at this point in time, here's just a few examples of TA used on Altcoins and Bitcoin.

The first ever Technical Analysis chart applied to altcoins on Dogecoin, from way back in January 2014:

Example of a markup on Blackcoin BC last month:

How a Dump looks like and when you should exit:

Bitcoin on a Logarithmic scale:


Once you can wrap you head around the following facts, and combine them with what I have covered in the previous posts, you should be well on your way to developing a profitable cryptocurrency trading strategy. So here's a recap of the key takeaways:

1) Markets are fundamentally fractal in nature; for every one up or down trend, you can zoom in/out too see the same wave cycles. Read more about Elliott Wave Theory here.



2) Price charts are merely a graph of human behaviour. It doesn't matter if you're looking at a 3h chart or a 30m chart, they all tell the same story. Make sure to always compare two different time frames to better understand the macro and micro trend.


3) All markets are linked to each other, and affect each other in a dynamic fashion to create one over-arching ecosystem. Don't forget those crash cycle charts I showed you at the beginning; they're everywhere.

4) All markets are manipulated. Ride the waves and profit with the whales; don't fight the macro trend.




With that, I'll just end off with a few words of wisdom.